What Factors Determine EPL Outright Winner Betting Odds?

Unlike games that might be coming up this weekend, which will have a broadly similar range of odds, even if you shop around, outrights often have a greater scope. Part of that is down to the array of factors to consider and the number of variables that can directly influence how the outright will play out. Some betting platforms will offer incentives, which include better odds. Other betting platforms will boost their promotions to get new customers who use specific payment methods.  

The growth of Bitcoin in traditional finance and iGaming has meant that several sports betting platforms have identified it as a potential game-changer in the future trajectory of the sports betting market. Betting on sports with Bitcoin follows the same structure as a traditional sports betting market; the only difference, and it is a big one, is that you connect your Bitcoin wallet directly to the site. Outright markets are the same; the payout operates the same. You will receive your return in Bitcoin and can withdraw it directly from your crypto wallet. 

So, while promotions and adverts can play some role in determining betting odds – the main factors are specific to the teams touted for the title.  

Pre-season tournaments aren’t usually a good starting point—they allow teams to blow the cobwebs off, and teams like Manchester City, Arsenal, and Liverpool often give their reserves and youth players a run out. Most bookies will use the previous season’s standing to form their pre-season outright markets.  

Although a managerial change or the loss of key players can impact these markets, they usually do not take decent shape until a couple of months into the season. We did see this with Liverpool, though; Jurgen Klopp unexpectedly left as the boss, and going into this season, all sportsbooks had City and Arsenal as the two favorites to win the EPL.

Unlike specific markets, such as 1×2 betting, which follows a pretty standard framework. Although, of course, this doesn’t guarantee that you will call the result right. The outright EPL winners market changes rapidly over the first few months of the season – even if one team takes command in the early weeks, there are still so many things to factor in.

Injuries play a huge role in outright markets, especially long-term injuries. Although Liverpool had a strong start to this year’s EPL – it wasn’t until Rodri was ruled out for the entire season back in September that outright markets really started to shift in Liverpool’s favor.

If a player faces a long stint out, whether through injuries or suspensions, it can result in key players missing big crunch games against other title contenders. This will have a knock-on effect on the outright markets, too.

If two teams are neck and neck for the title, but one team has the more challenging run of games, then this is another critical factor for the sportsbooks. If one team has to play the other team at their home stadium, this is another factor that can dictate how the title race pans out.  

Because they’re the top teams in the division, teams that are challenging for the title will often have other competitions they’re reaching the final stages of. Over the last few years, Manchester City and Liverpool have reached the latter stages of the Champions League while challenging for the title, and this can have a knock-on impact on player fatigue and consistency.

If one team crashes out of the cup competitions early, their players do not have to play as many games. Granted, teams like Liverpool and Manchester City have the bank balance to simply go out and spend vast amounts of money on fringe players, but if they also have fewer games to play in all competitions, their players can be fresher and fitter to mount an EPL title challenge.

Liverpool has been leading the way in the outright markets since before Christmas. However, now that they have established a double-digit point lead over Arsenal with 10 games left and still have to play the Gunners at Anfield, it would take a miracle for them not to get this one over the finish line.  

Arne Slot has performed a magnificent job since taking over from Klopp by keeping their star man, Mo Salah, away from the injury table and suspensions and picking up points in some of their most challenging fixtures. It also helped that many of the pre-season markets were focused on either City or Arsenal winning the league outright, which took the pressure away from Liverpool. Next season, though, there’ll be a whole new set of factors to focus on, which is what makes English domestic football so exhilarating.